March 2008
1 post
correlation v. causation
andy: "During the 1990s, an average college graduate earned in excess of a 70% premium above the average high school graduate, e.g., Pierce and Welch (1996)."
Zia: I'm listening to the song through my bose earbuds
andy: why do you think the statemtn above is true
Zia: sexual favors
Zia: we all know high schoolers suck at giving head
andy: hmm
andy: but we all were high schoolers
Zia: I mean, many high paying jobs require a college degree
andy: that assumes maybe that college kids are more ambitious than just high school grads
Zia: no, it assumes that those are requirements for high paying jobs
andy: yeah, but im going back to the original statement
Zia: you're saying that from that statement
Zia: you can determine that high school grads are less ambitious?
andy: maybe high school grads didnt care to make as much money as college grads
andy: its like, in america, we assume everyone wants to make a lot of money
andy: and the statements like the one i showed you kind of try and isolate one factor
Zia: the statement above is a statement above...
andy: how so?
andy: i mean, i see what you mean, but i dont really see that
Zia: i mean, you gave me a statement
Zia: which is a correlation
Zia: and you're finding causation
Zia: you do this a lot
andy: i was arguing that the statement above was basing its impact on lots of factors, many that are assumed and not controlled for
Zia: the statement above was basing its impact
Zia: what does that even mean ^
Zia: all i see is a statement
andy: impact = legitimacy
Zia: still, it would have to be an author who was basing the statement's legitimacy on factors, and it would have to be in the context of those factors
Zia: an author or an analyst of some kind
andy: all im saying is that maybe there's no meaning in the statement above
andy: what he's trying to do is relate college education to salary as related to those who just have a hs degree
Zia: there is no meaning in the statement above, except what's written
Zia: if you've clipped this from an article, that would change things a bit
Zia: if it's just a quote
andy: maybe those who go to college are just more ambitious and they just care about making more money?
Zia: it means exactly what it says
andy: im not saying its not true
Zia: I know that
andy: but the context of the statement assumes lots of things
Zia: you haven't given me any context whatsoever
Zia: so I can't agree/disagree there
andy: hmm
andy: i dont think this is coming through
Zia: all you gave me was a statement - if you want to discuss the reasons why we believe it might be true/false, then we can do that... what we can't do is talk about the author's assumptions or prejudices since all it is an allegedely factual statement
andy: yeah, all im talking about is how that statement rings with our understanding of america
andy: how other people understand that statement
Zia: how do other people understand it
Zia: still confused
Zia: I guess I'm trying to figure out what your point is
andy: ok
andy: i feel like they're trying to isolate the causation based on the single notion of whether or not they went to college
andy: but im asking, what if it starts before
Zia: understand that there's no claim of causation in that statement at all, but we'll move to your question
Zia: what if what starts before?
andy: the causation
andy: but i found some context
andy: "High returns to additional schooling are noted. In the US these returns have grown dramatically over the past 20 years, particularly for a college education...."
andy: so that author is using the statement above as evidence for this assertion
Zia: causation can't "start", I have no idea what you're referring to...
Zia: okay, no causation still
andy: do you not think that he's trying to create a causation between level of schooling and salary?
Zia: it's whether I think it or not, he just isn't
Zia: between those two statements, all that exists are correlations
andy: ok i agree with you
andy: i feel that correlations are all that exist
andy: but he's definitly trying to show a causation
andy: you think he's only trying to show correlation?
Zia: he's not trying to show anything
Zia: he IS showing a correlation
Zia: that is it
Zia: period
andy: see, to me, he's trying to show causation where there's only correlation
Zia: try to explain to me how there's a claim for causation
andy: he's arguing that high wages are caused by college education
andy: no?
Zia: no
Zia: he's saying that the data shows a correlation between high wages and a college education
Zia: not that it's the cause
andy: high returns to additional schooling are noted
andy: additional schooling creates high returns
Zia: you wrote that last statement
Zia: data shows that there are more ice cream vendors in the summer months than in the colder months... therefore, it's the ice cream vendors that cause warm weather
Zia: now, if you showed me another part of the article where he makes some kind of a case that there is causation, I wouldn't be shocked
Zia: but you haven't
andy: he says that high return are associated with additioning schooling only
andy: he's not including any other factors
andy: he's implicitly arguing for causation
Zia: you can't implicitly argue for causation
andy: ok
andy: it would seem rather pointless otherwise
Zia: correlations are simply indications that there's a pattern, that's useful, but if you're trying to prove a point, it's not
andy: the way i see it...he's creating a relationship between two variables in order to prove a point; to me, that means he's creating causation
Zia: to statistics, it means he's creating a correlation
andy: how so?
Zia: correlation: the relationship between variables.
Zia: that's how so
Zia: there's no point he's trying to prove, not in those two statements
Zia: it's like if an alien came to earth on a rainy day and saw everyone with umbrellas, and the next day was sunny... he might say "hmm... studies show that when the umbrellas were out, it was raining, and when the umbrellas were away, it was not raining"
Zia: there's no argument there
Zia: if he said "well, obviously, it's the umbrellas that caused the rain since the rain wasn't there when no one had umbrellas" that's an argument
February 2008
1 post
the rape of our self esteem
nick: stay strong against passive aggression
nick: it is the rape of our self esteem
January 2008
1 post
Top 15 Amazing Coincidences →
December 2007
6 posts
Foul-mouthed customer leaves waitress $50,000 →
See what good customer service can get you?
I miss sour patch kids
Zia: actually, have you seen what they've replaced sour patch kids with
pj: what
pj: sour patch pre teens
pj: ?
Zia: it's this thing called sour jack's and it has the sexual undertones of linda mixed with the forwardness of andy
pj: umm i love the aftertaste of nutty forwardness
Zia: Exhibit A: it's called Sour JACK's
Zia: like Jack-it
Zia: it's advertised as "mouth puckering candy"
pj: jack off your penis with your hand
Zia: and if you still don't believe me
Zia: look at this graphic
Zia:
http: //www.americas-favorite.com/products/sourjacks50_d.jpg
Zia: what the F is that kid doing down there
pj: HAHQ
pj: hes totally pleassssssssssssssuring his cock and balls
Zia: I'm not kidding! I ate these at the movies, and I was like WTF man.
pj: "BURSTING with sour power
pj: "
Zia: and let's not forget the shape of the candies:
Zia: http://www.ohnuts.com/UploadedImages/smImage/cachedir/8e2eab3cd4d1ec9467a786b1b8ddcca8.jpg
Zia: look familiar?
“Parentists, the dogmatic believers that parents alone are the source of...”
– External Delivery the Future
The Death of High Fidelity →
Music is loud these days.
Hey Guess What
I’m going to start tumblr’ing again. I only stopped because I was too lazy to re-add the bookmarklet after I got my work computer reformatted. Remember, there’s always ziahassan.com for non-interesting stuff about my life and day-to-day activities, and inputsoutputs.com for posts that aren’t really about me.
November 2007
6 posts
well shit
Zia: i look like hell
andy: thats awesome man
Teen kills herself over Myspace message →
This is terrible. But I think it’s something that people should know about.
Zia: hey i have a question that may sound dumb
Zia: why are vets homeless
Zia: what's the deal with that
andy: they are?
Zia: yeah
Zia: i see em all the time
Zia: with signs "vet... homeless"
andy: weird
andy: i dont recall
Zia: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/mostemailed/*http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071108/ap_on_re_us/homeless_veterans
Zia: i was just thinking about it the other day then i saw this article
andy: oh
andy: geez
andy: i thought you meant veternarian
Zia: well, i feel better now
Record Fifth Planet Discovered Around Distant Star →
Is it clear yet that we aren’t alone?
IBM Turns Silicon Waste Into Solar Panels →
Possible Cure for Cancer? Hell yes. →
October 2007
25 posts
brilliant!
Zia: ok briliant
Jen: this past episode was amazingggg
Jen: oh brilliant!
Jen: love that word
Jen: so english
Zia: brill!
Jen: haha
Jen: love it!
Jen: i heart brilll
Zia: but what about brill-o
Jen: no
Jen: that's like brill o pa
Jen: pad
Jen: ding dong
Jen: like the ouchy sponge
WatchThat’s thinking outside the box.
Howstuffworks "How Quantum Suicide Works" →
THE FANBOY Top 100 movies →
WatchThanks to Ed for a funny video which reminds me of… well, Ed.
Rider Calls 911 From Stopped Coaster At Six Flags →
I got stuck on this ride once. Not riding this ever again.
Target Won't Refund New iPod Box Found Full Of... →
Two consumerist posts in one day - I’m glad I just added this blog to my reader.
After Blogs Cry "Censorship," AT&T Says It Will... →
Internet 1 AT&T 0
Sick Of Waiting For An Install, 75-Year-Old Woman... →
I’m waiting till we get one of these at IBM.
WatchThis video contains an auditory illusion. It’s weird. If you get confused, listen a third time.
IBM, Google detail joint initiative →
Working with Google - cool. Giving money to the best computer science programs in the country - super cool.
WatchThis is creepy in so many ways.
Flo Control →
I think I’ve seen this before - basically, these people built a system that recognizes their cat’s face. And it recognizes if she has a mouse in her mouth. A mouse-free mouth is her ticket to re-entry.
WatchUgly people do apply That’s cool.
WatchLiveLeak.com - The Human LCD - Amazing Not bad. Not bad.
Top 5 Things Every Extrovert Should Know About... →
Based on these, I really think I might be an introvert.
September 2007
64 posts
Forever Until Later
Zia: entertain me homey
nick: i cant i gg to rehearsal and i hate u
nick: goodbye forever until later
Letting kids drink early reduces binging →
No f’in way.
WatchThis is awesome.
